Skip to main content

Table 3 Eve-of-vote poll and Twitter stance predictions with adjustments for the age demography

From: Stance and influence of Twitter users regarding the Brexit referendum

 

18–24

25–49

50–64

65+

Prediction

 

%Leave

 

%Leave

 

%Leave

 

%Leave

%Leave

1. Poll results

0.114

20

0.431

45

0.247

56

0.208

60

48.6

2. Projection to Twitter demo

0.261

20

0.526

45

0.146

56

0.067

63

41.3

3. Twitter actual

0.261

25

0.526

56

0.146

70

0.067

78

51.3

4. Poll adjusted

0.114

25

0.431

56

0.247

70

0.208

78

60.4

5. Discrepancy between projection to Twitter demographics and Twitter actual (rows 2 and 3)

10.0%